Europe is on the brink of civil war now. The mass sexual assaults in Cologne at the New Year were too outrageous and provocative to be swept under the rug, no matter how much effort Google and Twitter devote to manually overriding their trend display algorithms. Immigrant wilding at that scale is a blatant threat to public safety, national security, and ultimately national sovereignty. By any reasonable standard it is completely unacceptable for young men to be given free rein to gang-rape women in the streets. In this particular case, the outrage is compounded by a troubling ethnic dynamic, with the assaults having been committed against German women by Arab and North African men at a time when the German government had already alienated many of its constituents by being one of the most accommodating governments in Europe for Arab asylum seekers.
Angela Merkel is no longer just putting her political career at risk; she’s putting her life on the line. Over the past year she has engendered growing ill will among critics who believe that her judgment and moral clarity are clouded because she is sexually in thrall to strapping young Arab men. If she doesn’t take a credible hard line on immigrant and ethnic minority violence, she will be exposing herself to an extreme risk of assassination. That’s how volatile public opinion in Northern Europe has become.
Much of Northern Europe has been close to the flash point for some time. Sexual assault by non-European immigrants and their descendants is reported to be at extremely high baseline levels in Sweden. The suburbs of Paris are notoriously violent, chaotic, and hopeless. Holland has suffered the assassinations of Theo Van Gogh and Pim Fortuyn, both of them critical of Islam as a threat to treasured Dutch rights and liberties. The coexistence of an infertile, affluent, liberal indigenous population and a poor, conservative immigrant population split between the teemingly fertile and the sexually marginalized was never sustainable. Worse, the indigenous and immigrant populations are starkly divided by religion. Their domestic socioeconomic and demographic clashes are framed as an existential battle between Christendom and the Caliphate. In France, this sectarian distrust is further exacerbated by the presence of large populations from the old colonies of the Maghreb living in the imperial center, where they continue to be aggressively marginalized, with their French-born descendants routinely treated as second-class citizens by indigenous Frenchmen. It’s about religion until it isn’t about religion; neither Jesus nor any of his disciples commanded the French police and military to torture suspected Algerian rebels. For that matter, the Papacy has historically been only sporadically a Christian institution.
Charles Martel, pray for us.
The colonial backstory doesn’t excuse Europe’s rising tide of sexual assault, but it goes far to explain it. The violence isn’t happening in a vacuum. Rape is strongly correlated with poverty, war, and large populations of unmarried young men. That’s much of the Middle East and North Africa today. With the exception of Iran and its closest allies, the default political tone from Marrakesh to Peshawar is set by hardline Wahhabi mullahs, maybe the worst, most violent sex scolds on earth, who use blackmail to extort liberal handouts of walking-around money from obscenely wealthy sovereign sexual perverts. The party line is one of impeccable chastity, most starkly enforced in Islam’s holy ancestral land, Saudi Arabia, with the judicial beheading of adulteresses. The reality on the ground is more often one of rape, child molestation, bestiality, and, for the royals, all-night scat play. Western (and, I assume, Persian) bigots often blame this on the inherent perversion of Arabs, but these are for the most part poor men governed by regimes that ruthlessly suppress common prostitution.
The Gulf Arab royals and aristocrats are more provably culpable, since they have the resources to hire prostitutes for wholesome sex acts and choose instead to indulge in unimaginably disordered behaviors, and since they’re westernized enough that they should be aware of lower-key, more wholesome Western sexual cultures. Maybe their westernization is superficial; they’re certainly dishonest as all hell with their own subjects. Some of their more impressionable and timid scions may be hopelessly ruined, and hence somewhat less culpable, on account of their socialization by violent, domineering, psychopathic relatives.
The Gulf Arab elites, especially the Saudis, are key colonial players in the Arab world, no less important than the British, French, or American empires. They’ve done everything in their power to Arabize Islam in the Wahhabi image in every country where they can establish a sphere of influence. Contrary to popular opinion on the Western right wing, this excludes a wide swath of the Muslim world, including Iran and most of India and Indonesia, nations home to some of the largest Muslim populations in the world. It’s telling that all three of these countries have relatively functional and responsive governments. They’re shitty by Western standards and scathingly criticized by disaffected constituents at home, but they’re miraculous compared to the failed states in Afghanistan, Somalia, Yemen, Syria, and Iraq, among others. These are regimes that aren’t just bluffing when they tell the likes of al-Qaeda to get fucked.
Any regime as craven, psychopathic, and bottomfeeding as Saudi Arabia thrives on the abject dysfunction of its neighbors. If there isn’t any spontaneous internal dysfunction to be exploited in the colonies and client states, the imperial center may well decide to create some. This, roughly, is why the Royal Saudi Air Force has recently been pulverizing Yemen.
Don’t worry, though; Ami is using drones to get in on that action, too, and the State Department is aggressively engaged in the treacherous, unconstitutional proxy denaturalization of Yemeni-US dual citizens by seizing their passports when they seek services at US consulates. Instead of Canadians of convenience, we have Americans of inconvenience, and that’s a pretty sanitized euphemism for a government deliberately stranding its citizens in a foreign war zone. This treachery is worse than Anwar al-Awlaki, by the way. Awlaki was an obnoxious, violently minded shithead, but he hollered his word as a private citizen. He had no duty of government office to provide equal protection under the law to his fellow citizens; consular officials do.
In a sick way, these are two regimes well suited to each other. The US deep state subverts the duly constituted republican government to which it is legally accountable. The Saudi deep state answers to a royal family with near-absolute powers which consolidated its sovereignty over a newly unified country assembled from smaller, more local absolute monarchies in 1932, within living memory. Geopolitically, this was quite similar to the nineteenth-century unification processes in Germany and Italy, but with hardly any civil society and no separation of powers. The Arabian Peninsula has historically been considered a relatively backwards part of the Arab world in contrast to Egypt, Mesopotamia, and the Levant, although for different reasons in the three instances. It is only on account of its immense sovereign wealth from oil royalties that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has been able to start shedding this reputation, and the process has been a haphazard one: the kingdom has a reputation for being stolidly boring compared to the postage-stamp emirates on its Gulf coast, especially Dubai, and backwards and repressed compared to points north. That said, the substantial pulverization of Baghdad and intermittent urban combat in Damascus and Aleppo in recent years while Saudi Arabia’s cities have remained intact makes the Kingdom look relatively good, and the Saudi regime is certainly vicious enough to conspire in this regional destabilization in part to aggrandize its own reputation for stability and peace.
When push comes to shove, though, the presence or absence of a republic for the deep state to subvert hardly matters. Practically, the effects are the same. The US-Saudi military/intelligence alliance goes around other countries in the region blowing shit up regardless, sometimes with Israeli help. Peace parties in the US or Israel are occasionally able to use the legislature to put the brakes on military adventurism for which the executive actually seeks prior authorization, as the US Congress did over plans for a major entanglement in Syria a few years ago, but when the executive takes action without asking permission, the military belligerence almost always continues unabated. In the US, a Congressional curtailment of these undeclared, unauthorized foreign missions would require the impeachment of high officials, and Congress has been skittish about impeachment ever since its last use of the process in the insipid, irrelevant moral panic over Bill Clinton’s half-sublimated extramarital affair with Monica Lewinsky. Because articles of impeachment were brought against President Clinton for getting blown by his intern, they cannot now be brought against President Obama for blowing up dissident US citizens in Yemen, along with whatever infrastructure happens to be within the blast radius.
Regardless of whatever flowery, high-minded party line is disseminated for Western audiences and overheard by reformists in the Arab world, the actual process at play here is the assertion of the will to power by people grandiose, self-righteous, psychopathic, or sadistic enough to care about and respond to nothing else. The specific mechanics are that a Johnny-come-lately family of gangsters ruling a small, poor population was found to be sitting atop a gigantic oil field, so the leading Western imperial powers took to flooding this sovereign crime family with military aid and then standing by impotently while a significant part of the sovereign treasury was extorted through blackmail by the most destructive clergy of religious mummers on earth. This is an ongoing process today.
There is no transcendent natural law dictating that Saudi theocrats must set the religious and cultural tone for other countries inheriting the imperial remains and the arable lands that enabled them on the Tigris, the Euphrates, and the Nile. Aside from its oil fields, Saudi Arabia is an almost uninhabitable desert with a fringe of marginally productive mountains in its west. Its government has shut down domestic wheat and hay production due to severe groundwater depletion. Oil is the only reason that the Saudi regime has any regional sway whatsoever. It happens that the world’s swing oil producer is ruled by brutal civil tyrants who are in turn in thrall to equally brutal quasi-state religious tyrants. The slush of oil money pooling in this system is the only thing allowing the beards to be more than a minor nuisance beyond Saudi Arabia’s borders. The Wahhabis have the funds to step into multiple foreign civic vacuums and provide basic services that the local governments are too dysfunctional or corrupt to provide for their own constituents. These services consistently include education for the local boys. They have a captive, and usually appreciative, audience because no one else is stepping up to the plate, including the US government, which would rather arm its crooked client governments to the teeth.
This is why the Wahhabi clerics are so capable of poisoning the minds of young people in much of the Muslim world. They aren’t superhuman villains; they’re competent, workmanlike opportunists. They would have none of this international quasi-state power if Saudi and Western governments weren’t bombing the daylights out of some countries and watching others descend into civil war, sometimes for the economic benefit of foreign governments and businessmen.
The latter is exactly what happened in Somalia. The mainstream Western press covered the urban combat in Mogadishu and the disastrous failure of the US Marines to keep the peace there, but it said nothing about the simultaneous total collapse of law enforcement in Somalia’s territorial waters. This allowed foreign trawlers to stripmine Somalia’s fishery in the absence of any functioning coast guard, domestic or international, leaving nothing for local subsistence fishermen. Hence the pirates. The scourge of piracy off the Horn of Africa took hold after the disintegration of Somalia’s government, when foreign fishing crews noticed a maritime free-for-all and started aggressively poaching in Somali waters. When the local fishermen put down their guns and returned to their nets as the fighting abated, they discovered that there was nothing left for them to catch. This was in a chronically poor country that had been plunged into severe chaos and destitution.
These guys were desperate. They knew how to operate boats, they knew better than ever how to use guns in small-scale, ad hoc combat, and they were based within striking distance of a crucial international shipping lane. Umpteenth-generation fishermen didn’t suddenly decide to become fishers of men due to some inherently piratical nature; they did so because they could see no alternative to keep their families from starving. Over the course of a few years, with some help from the jihad mummers and the realization that this new business could be unimaginably lucrative, a culture of piracy started to take hold in Somalia, along with pop-up private stock markets to fund piracy ventures. This is obviously something that the international community should try to suppress and replace with productive ways of making a living, but the international community that might do this is the same one that allowed its trawlers to loot Somali territorial waters to the brink of collapse.
What keeps happening is that the United States, Saudi Arabia, and their allies keep sowing chaos in other, poorer, more vulnerable Muslim countries and then wondering why there’s military and social blowback from the dispossessed populations. Middle Eastern refugees have been flooding into Europe while wealthy governments on the Arabian Peninsula refuse to lift a finger to provide them with asylum and temporary shelter, choosing instead to fund Wahhabi-affiliated mosques and religious propaganda in Europe. Western governments probably won’t ask their Gulf Arab counterparts to do a damned thing for the refugees because they’re too desperate to maintain them as client states for discount oil supplies and military bases.
Unaccompanied young men, many of them unmarried and a frightening number of them unmarriageable, end up in these wealthy, sexually liberalized Western countries after a lifetime in home countries that are sexually repressed. They flee countries with illiberal, often draconian, policies repressing prostitution and settle disporportionately in Germany, which has one of the most libertarian prostitution regimes in the world. Others end up in Sweden, the host and international proponent of one of the most batshit crazy progressive attempts to suppress prostitution, but in other regards one of the world’s most sexually libertine cultures. These men are involuntarily celibate in societies where sexually liberated women are all around them but just out of reach. They’re fully aware that the West has conspired to pillage their home countries, too. The Western women in their host countries, who dress publicly in a fashion they consider fit for whores, become proxy booty in their eyes, the only things they can feasibly seize to compensate themselves for an immiseration that they blame on the West. What else can they do? Break into US embassies and assassinate CIA station chiefs? Burglarize Fort Knox for walking-around bullion? The Arab world’s surplus men have been raping innocent soft targets in Europe, but for that matter the governments whose constituents they are raping are allied with imperial governments that have been carpet-bombing every soft target they fancy throughout the militarily vulnerable parts of the Ummah. It may not be deliberate, retaliatory reciprocation, but it’s reciprocation of some sort. It isn’t excusable, but it’s perfectly understandable.
There’s no equitable way to fix this nightmare in the near term. Denmark has successfully spared itself from most of the trouble by erring on the side of prudence rather than hospitality, while Sweden has been overrun because its government has erred on the side of idealistic fecklessness. Hungary deployed thousands of police to hold the line against the migrants, by force when necessary, and clear enough space for the emergency construction of a fairly solid border fence. In the process, it dumped a human mess on the hands of the Croatian police, sending foreigners who had already been on foot for hundreds of miles around two sides of a triangle in their quest to reach the promised land of Northern Europe. There’s no rhyme or reason to any of this. The Hungarian and Danish governments were the first two to vigorously assert their own national sovereignty over pan-European sovereignty during a state of emergency, and other governments that hesitated got hit harder by the flood of refugees. Denmark has long been famous for one of the most restrictive immigration policies in the EU, and Hungary for its xenophobic nationalist politics, so these countries had a head start.
There’s no rhyme or reason to any of this. It’s verging on a war of all against all. Maybe the Schengen Agreement will endure in some fashion in spite of this dumpster fire. It would be tragic for such a trailblazing free movement zone to be internally enclosed on account of this crisis, but the external border has clearly failed catastrophically and there was clearly a public safety emergency in a number of Northern European cities over the New Year, not just Cologne. The full extent of the rampage probably hasn’t emerged yet, nor has the precise extent of its coordination. Some of the latest reports include photographs of Arabic-German cue cards with sexually explicit phrases that are said to have been seized from assailants.
The internal threat here has to be addressed first before any of the European governments responsible try to work out a geopolitical solution to the underlying instability. It’s completely unacceptable for a government to allow gangs to undertake wholesale assaults on innocent on the town squares of its major cities more than once.
The geopolitical and demographic disasters that enabled this downtown wilding in the first place will likely remain untouched. Western governments have kicked that can down the road before.
God save the Pax Europa.